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Market Still Finding 2023 Footing

After some rigorous data analysis, the thoughtful, numbers-based host was able to formulate some potential conclusions.

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While it’s hard to imagine 2023 being as painful for investors as 2022, experts still cannot say for certain we are destined for blue skies ahead. Many in the media are starting the year by sifting through the stock market tea leaves; trying to figure out what historical data can tell us about probabilities and expectations for the next twelve months.

Some think the United States is poised for a market rebound, while others remain quite bearish, feeling that negative policy implications have yet to be fully realized.

Peter Tuchman of Trademas Inc. joined Neil Cavuto on his Fox News program Friday, to offer his thoughts about where the American stock market might be headed in light of the newly-divided United States Congress.

“Markets have a sort of a gut of their own,” Cavuto opened. “Today’s a good example. We’re up 300 points, ended up down 112 points. What’s going on?”

“Markets don’t like unknowns, and markets need confidence. The investing community needs confidence,” Tuchman said. “And I think it’s going to take a lot of work to rebuild that. And as we saw the other night with what went on in the House, it feels like people should get busy governing as opposed to all this posturing.”

Six months ago, Tuchman didn’t have a solid feel for the direction of the market. And just two trading weeks into the year, he still doesn’t believe any real trend has been established.

“The market has yet to find its ground. It’s yet to find its footing,” Tuchman told Cavuto. “And still, even coming into 2023, the first week of trading we have not found our footing. We have come in on a couple of economic notes that were a little bit positive. We opened up with a little bit of irrational enthusiasm. By the end of the days we were trading down.”

Meanwhile, some financial outlets, such as CNBC, have dug into the data showing what a market rise during the year’s first week – such as what we experienced this year – potentially means for the rest of 2023. They published a story last week with the headline, Simple ‘first five days’ stock market indicator is poised to send a good omen for 2023“.

On an episode of his popular YouTube program late last week, James from Invest Answers dug into 73 years of stock market data, to test that theory and see if the first five days of yearly stock market performance are an indicator of what the market might do over the full year.

“Some analysts pay attention to this, the first five trading day performance, can it be an indicator of a good year or a bad year,” James began last week, “I wanted to dig into all of that and get the answer for myself. Because some people think yes. Some people swear blind by it. Some people think it’s a myth or an old wive’s tale. Some people think it’s a great omen.”

After some rigorous data analysis, the thoughtful, numbers-based host was able to formulate some potential conclusions.

Based on James’ analysis…

If the gains from the first five market days of the year are negative, the market rises 86 percent of the time over the full year, with an average gain of 6%.

If the first five days are positive, the market increases 92% of the time, with an average yearly gain of 16%.

Most importantly, in this year’s scenario, where the first five days saw a jump of more than 1%, the market traditionally ends positive for the year 95 percent of the time. Those years see an average yearly gain of 18%.

“Is it a good omen, does it look bullish?” James asked. “Well, yes, based on history. But remember, there are factors like inflation, interest rates, geopolitical turmoil, supply chains, slowing economy. All that stuff is in play. But history also says that the market bounces bounces back before the market even realizes it’s in a recession. That’s an important thing to know.”

On his Your World program, Cavuto wondered if the recent House speaker voting drama has added to the uncertainty facing markets.

“Historically, Wall Street definitely is a bit more friendly to a Republican administration,” Tuchman said. “We’re in new ground, there’s no playbook, Neil. And I went over it with you the last time. There’s no playbook for coming out of a pandemic. No playbook for what’s gone on over the last two and a half years. Let’s think about it. March 2020, the market sold off so radically. We had a rally of 20 percent in 2020. 28 percent in 2021, in the eyes of a global economic shutdown due to the Federal Reserve’s posturing and whatnot.

“And now we’re trying to unwind that position. In tech, and in possible recession, and inflation and supply chain issues. So, there’s no way historically to make a judgment on what the future looks like in that realm, let alone what’s going on in the dis-functionality of what’s happening in Washington. I would like to disengage what’s going on in Washington and try and rebuild the confidence in the market coming into 2023.” 

So while the data might indicate a strong year ahead, the fact is that many analysts still won’t make that definitive call amidst such economic turmoil gripping the country. 

Along with U.S. markets, they remain steadfast in their search for solid footing.

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Corporate Radio Will Never Learn Job Cuts Aren’t the Key to Profitability

In most corporate settings, business ventures, and other fields of play, when the team is taking hit after hit and not recovering or regaining any ground, it’s time for an overhaul.

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Audacy Logo

There comes a point in time, sadly, when a self-labeled News/Talk radio station forfeits the right to describe itself as such. That generally happens when you are providing no or at least so very little actual news product that you should just call yourself a Talk station and move on.

That concept is starting to climb the staircase to reality again thanks to last week’s developments in the ever-struggling world of broadcast media.

I was hoping to go at least six months without having to say the words Audacy or layoffs. No such luck. In fact, I get to put the two words together.

This is a company with well over 200 stations, covering nearly 50 markets across the country. What are they best known for in the last five years by my observations?

Failure.

An Audacy spokesman says the company is reducing its workforce by “less than 2%”.

Yeah okay, so that’s supposed to make us feel better somehow? That works out to nearly 100 people. All in the effort to try and reduce Audacy’s almost $2 billion in debt.

Bankruptcy and delisting weren’t enough, apparently.

In the spirit of full transparency, I worked under the Entercom and Audacy banners on two separate occasions, some 20 years apart. It seems under the old name — and prior leadership — things fared more than a tad better. Read into that what you will.

I’m no business person but I can read and I do have the ability to form the occasional coherent thought every once in a while. So, based upon what I’ve observed over the past quarter century, perhaps there’s some merit to the saying, “Bad things happen in Philadelphia.”

In most corporate settings, business ventures, and other fields of play, when the team is taking hit after hit and not recovering or regaining any ground, it’s time for an overhaul.

My dad ran a restaurant for several years and during that time he faced challenges, man-made and otherwise. And while he was no Wolfgang Puck or Toots Shor, never once did he think of adding me to the mix to try and improve the product or the business environment. Not everybody is a chip off the old block as no doubt everyone in radio has seen by now.

Interestingly, the company has once again made major cuts as it continues to tell us the focus and priorities are on streaming, podcasting, and the website. Laudable efforts, I suppose, but if you so decimate your core product there will be no platform left where you can promote all of these fabulous ventures, or more accurately there will be no audience to inform. I would think this is something a sharp or even moderately competent business person might recognize.

But the fact of the matter is no matter what you say or do, you are a radio station first. And to promote your podcasts and your website, there has to be something to listen to on your station.

These are the things that a sharp or even moderately competent businessperson might recognize.

At some point, there has to be a come about if there is to be much left at all for the radio lobbyists to fight for. The very essence of the radio product is what disappears when these slashes occur, and the voices, the names, and the people creating the content disappear. Somehow, those making the poor decisions, the individuals executing the wrong moves, or even more accurately, no moves at all, remain.

Those overseeing the poor decision-makers are themselves poor decision-makers. The proof is in the end result. Could single ownership of stations do any worse? Perhaps it’s time for the Titanic to cast off the lifeboats before they hit the really big iceberg that’s inevitably coming. They’ve hit enough of the smaller ones and perhaps at least a few of those in the lifeboats stand a chance.

I for one would give a station owned by a guy named Morty a listen or two. WKRP didn’t do too badly under the Carlson family.

In any case, if you have not surveyed the latest damage: major markets got hit, again, with this latest round of layoffs.

Just after launching their dedicated sports brand, Audacy made cuts in Pittsburgh, Boston, Hartford, and New York.

I’m guessing those now part of the new sports portfolio are overwhelmed with confidence.

Oh, and did I say Hartford?

Yes, two people I sat across from just a couple of years ago at Audacy were shown the door. Sad on a personal level and mind-numbing from a business angle as it leaves us to wonder exactly how low they can go before the station offers no news value at all to the market. Doesn’t leave much else to choose from either.

But after all, it’s not personal, it’s strictly business.

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BNM Writers

Corporate Radio Will Never Learn Job Cuts Aren’t the Key to Profitability

In most corporate settings, business ventures, and other fields of play, when the team is taking hit after hit and not recovering or regaining any ground, it’s time for an overhaul.

Avatar photo

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on

Audacy Logo

There comes a point in time, sadly, when a self-labeled News/Talk radio station forfeits the right to describe itself as such. That generally happens when you are providing no or at least so very little actual news product that you should just call yourself a Talk station and move on.

That concept is starting to climb the staircase to reality again thanks to last week’s developments in the ever-struggling world of broadcast media.

I was hoping to go at least six months without having to say the words Audacy or layoffs. No such luck. In fact, I get to put the two words together.

This is a company with well over 200 stations, covering nearly 50 markets across the country. What are they best known for in the last five years by my observations?

Failure.

An Audacy spokesman says the company is reducing its workforce by “less than 2%”.

Yeah okay, so that’s supposed to make us feel better somehow? That works out to nearly 100 people. All in the effort to try and reduce Audacy’s almost $2 billion in debt.

Bankruptcy and delisting weren’t enough, apparently.

In the spirit of full transparency, I worked under the Entercom and Audacy banners on two separate occasions, some 20 years apart. It seems under the old name — and prior leadership — things fared more than a tad better. Read into that what you will.

I’m no business person but I can read and I do have the ability to form the occasional coherent thought every once in a while. So, based upon what I’ve observed over the past quarter century, perhaps there’s some merit to the saying, “Bad things happen in Philadelphia.”

In most corporate settings, business ventures, and other fields of play, when the team is taking hit after hit and not recovering or regaining any ground, it’s time for an overhaul.

My dad ran a restaurant for several years and during that time he faced challenges, man-made and otherwise. And while he was no Wolfgang Puck or Toots Shor, never once did he think of adding me to the mix to try and improve the product or the business environment. Not everybody is a chip off the old block as no doubt everyone in radio has seen by now.

Interestingly, the company has once again made major cuts as it continues to tell us the focus and priorities are on streaming, podcasting, and the website. Laudable efforts, I suppose, but if you so decimate your core product there will be no platform left where you can promote all of these fabulous ventures, or more accurately there will be no audience to inform. I would think this is something a sharp or even moderately competent business person might recognize.

But the fact of the matter is no matter what you say or do, you are a radio station first. And to promote your podcasts and your website, there has to be something to listen to on your station.

These are the things that a sharp or even moderately competent businessperson might recognize.

At some point, there has to be a come about if there is to be much left at all for the radio lobbyists to fight for. The very essence of the radio product is what disappears when these slashes occur, and the voices, the names, and the people creating the content disappear. Somehow, those making the poor decisions, the individuals executing the wrong moves, or even more accurately, no moves at all, remain.

Those overseeing the poor decision-makers are themselves poor decision-makers. The proof is in the end result. Could single ownership of stations do any worse? Perhaps it’s time for the Titanic to cast off the lifeboats before they hit the really big iceberg that’s inevitably coming. They’ve hit enough of the smaller ones and perhaps at least a few of those in the lifeboats stand a chance.

I for one would give a station owned by a guy named Morty a listen or two. WKRP didn’t do too badly under the Carlson family.

In any case, if you have not surveyed the latest damage: major markets got hit, again, with this latest round of layoffs.

Just after launching their dedicated sports brand, Audacy made cuts in Pittsburgh, Boston, Hartford, and New York.

I’m guessing those now part of the new sports portfolio are overwhelmed with confidence.

Oh, and did I say Hartford?

Yes, two people I sat across from just a couple of years ago at Audacy were shown the door. Sad on a personal level and mind-numbing from a business angle as it leaves us to wonder exactly how low they can go before the station offers no news value at all to the market. Doesn’t leave much else to choose from either.

But after all, it’s not personal, it’s strictly business.

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BNM Writers

Does Conservative Media Secretly Want a Second Term for President Biden?

The evidence — from recent polling — suggests he could be a one-and-done president. But that doesn’t mean many in television, radio, and online media business don’t want him back for another go-round.

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A photo of President Joe Biden
(Photo: Gage Skidmore, C.C. 2.0)

Many of the biggest names in conservative media secretly want President Biden to win again in November. 

Sure, the evidence — from recent polling — suggests he could be a one-and-done president. But that doesn’t mean many in television, radio, and online media business don’t want him back for another go-round. Simply put, Biden’s material makes captivating and shocking television. 

Take, for example, podcast host Megyn Kelly and guests last week, who had a rip-roaring good time discussing President Joe Biden’s latest teleprompter gaffe, in which he read a word that was meant to tell him what to do.

“Here he was yesterday, speaking in front of members of North America’s Building Trades Unions in Washington D.C. It was such a simple assignment. It was so simple. Here’s how it went,” Kelly said as she began the segment with Josh Hammer, host of America on Trial with Josh Hammer, and Sara Gonzales, host of Sara Gonzales Unfiltered

Kelly then played a clip of the Democrat President.

“Imagine what we can do next. Four more years. Pause,” Biden said, as the crowd began the “four more years” chant.

“Oh my God,” Kelly interjected, suppressing the laughter. “Four more years….pause. Pause. And when the White House transcription guy, God love this poor slob, who knows what he’s had to go through. They changed it to ‘unintelligible.’ They refused to write ‘pause.‘ Sir, we know what it was. It was very clear. He said ‘pause.’ He embarrassed himself again and he cannot be saved by the White House transcription guy! Sara, I will start with you on it. I really think this is the kind of thing that will horrify and stick.”

“I agree. I mean, look. We have watched gaffe after gaffe after gaffe with Joe Biden throughout these three and a half years. And even I, as critical as I am about Joe Biden and as aware as I am that this is basically a Weekend at Bernies presidency, even I was like, I still cannot believe this happened,” Gonzales said. “I saw it yesterday afternoon and even in the evening I’m like, I still cannot believe what I just watched here. This man has been in public service for what, forty, fifty years and he still cannot read a teleprompter? It’s because he’s not here.”

As conservative media personalities, Kelly, Hammer, and Gonzales know how to read from a teleprompter. Even media newbies know this.

The trio then watched the clip again, and again shook their heads in disbelief.

“It also can’t be lost on everyone that the four more years chant was clearly, completely staged, because they wanted him to pause,” Gonzales said. “Because they couldn’t trust the audience to be that enthusiastic. They had to map it all out. Unfortunately, they overestimated Joe Biden’s ability to read from a teleprompter, which I’m sure we’ve all read from. It’s very clear when they want you to pause. It’s written differently in the prompter. There’s no reason for him to make this mistake, other than the fact that the man is half dead.”

The title of Kelly’s program episode read, Why Joe Biden’s Massive “Pause” Gaffe Could Lose Him the Election, and she made the point repeatedly that Biden’s continuous mistakes simply reinforce the narrative that he is not up to the job of being president. She went on to play a few other clips of Biden similarly reading the instructions from the teleprompter during written speeches. 

“Megyn, I’m really happy you mentioned what the White House transcriber reproduced this as, because what that actually reminded me of was that viral moment from the NASCAR race two and a half years ago. Where the crowd starts chanting F Joe Biden, and they’re like, they’re saying Let’s Go Brandon. That was a Let’s Go Brandon moment in a nutshell right there,” Hammer said, alluding to the depths the media has gone to protect the Democrat. “And I think you both are right that things like this are actually going to matter.”

Hammer continued, saying that these occurrences are nothing new.

“I think it’s worth pointing out that Joe Biden has been a gaffe machine for the entirety of his political career. He’s palpably senile at this point. It’s not a fun thing to say. I have a 94-year-old grandmother. I mean, these things are difficult. I mean, it’s not fun to discuss. But he obviously is senile,” Hammer said. “But that can’t necessarily hide the fact that he’s been a genuine gaffe machine since the moment he first set foot in Washington, D.C. back in the 1970’s.”

Certainly, if it weren’t so serious and dangerous, it would be even funnier.

“This is a major issue insofar as you look around the world, Megyn. I don’t need to be the one to tell you. You cover it every day. But the world is on fire right now,” Hammer added. “The universities are on fire. All of our enemies are looking at this stuff. Shi Jin Ping, Vladimir Putin, they’re kicking their feet up on the table and they are getting a bigger laugh out of it than the three of us just got on your show.”

Kelly finished the segment by playing a segment from the movie, Anchorman, in which Ron Burgundy pulled a Joe Biden and embarrassed himself by reading verbatim from a teleprompter.

“It’s Bernie Burgundy,” Kelly laughed. “It’s so funny to me.”

Conservative media knows Joe Biden is probably toast in this November’s election. The mainstream, liberal media knows it too.

But that doesn’t mean they don’t secretly, and selfishly, want another round of material, with which they can shock and entertain audiences for four more years.

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